Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 51% (up 4% since July 1-14, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (unchanged).
Support for Labour is 29% (down 2%); Greens are 10% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 1% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows that the National-led Coalition parties would win easily.
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 128.5 with 58.5% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30% (up 0.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll contains further good news for governing National (51%, up 4%) now up for the fourth straight Morgan Poll and well ahead of Labour/ Greens (39%, down 3.5%). This is the biggest lead for National since the 2011 New Zealand Election.
“The boost for PM John Key comes as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hit a five-year high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) at just under 90c AUD and amid rising optimism about the prospects for the New Zealand economy. The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is near a three year high at 119.8 in July while the ANZ Business Outlook shows business confidence at a 14 year high.”
The rumours have been around for a while that Labour's internal polling with UMR has delivered a number with a two in front of it. Now Roy Morgan becomes the first external poll for some time to rate Labour that low. And Labour's potential support partners the Greens and NZ First are also down, with the Greens now in danger of dropping back into single figures for the first time in a very long time.
There's another dynamic at play here:
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 824 electors from July 15-28, 2013.
Those dates are critical here. Roy Morgan ceased polling last Sunday; AFTER protest meetings and marches against the GCSB Bill. To us, this indicates that concerns around spying are very much a beltway issue, as support for all the parties opposing the GCSB Bill (including the Maori Party) actually fell in this poll, despite saturation media coverage of Kim Dotcom and other luminaries telling us how evil John Key is.
On the other hand however, the economy is growing, and that is what affects people on a daily basis. Following on from the Herald's chipper Mood of the Boardroom survey last week, the Roy Morgan organisation notes that the ANZ Business Outlook has business confidence at a 14-year high.
There's one area however where David Shearer gets lucky. Roy Morgan does not have a Preferred Prime Minister component to its polls, so there is no way of measuring whether Mr Shearer's personal popularity is soaring or sinking. That will be of small comfort to him though, given the awful poll result for Labour.
For some months, the Roy Morgan poll swung in the wind, with one side then the other getting an advantage. This time around however a trend is starting to develop; support for National has increased markedly over three consecutive Morgan polls, and support for Labour has fallen in the same period. We suspect that there will have been some very anxious meetings in offices in Parliament last night as Labour MP's who are now threatened with extinction in 2014 digested the poll result.
It's Thursday 1st August as we type this, and spring is now just 31 days away. Is there an end in sight to Labour's Winter of Discontent?
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