Friday, August 2, 2013

Australia looks forward to 7th September

Kevin Rudd seems to have settled on an election date; Stuff reports:

Kevin Rudd plans to visit the Governor-General on Sunday or Monday to seek approval for an election on September 7.
Sources have told Fairfax Media that Mr Rudd has now settled on the date and will fire the starter's gun on what promises to be one of the most intense political contests in memory.
The election campaign comes within days of an extraordinary mini-budget designed to position the government to address changing economic circumstances.
Softening conditions could force an extra 70,000 Australians out of work, as growth slows and Commonwealth revenues collapse by a staggering $33.3 billion over the next four years.
The worsening picture has shredded Labor's budget forecasts which were set just 10 weeks ago, creating a big political headache for the government. 

The Australian economy is not terribly healthy, and new Treasurer Chris Bowen faces some huge challenges; read on:

Australia's jobless rate is officially expected to climb to 6.25 per cent in 2013-14 and 2014-15. The last time the jobless rate was above 6.25 per cent was in September 2002 (6.3 per cent that month in trend terms).
Falling terms of trade and declining tax revenues have sent this year's projected deficit $12 billion higher to $30.1 billion, despite the combined $17.4 billion in spending cuts. A promised balanced budget in 2015-16 has gone by the wayside, despite Treasurer Chris Bowen and Finance Minister Penny Wong sticking with a promised surplus in 2016-17.
But to get there, they plan to send the national balance sheet deeper into the red, first with projected deficits of $24 billion in 2014-15, coming back to $5 billion in the red in 2015-16.
In the job for little over a month, Mr Bowen laid much of the blame at the feet of a slowing Chinese economy. But the opposition attacked the revised economic statement, with its treasury spokesman, Joe Hockey, describing Labor's economic management as ''chaotic'' and its budget ''in free fall''.
Mr Hockey said nearly 800,000 Australians were now likely to be jobless in coming months. 

Labor got a small bounce in the polls when Rudd took over from Julia Gillard after having repeated promised not to challenge for the Labor leadership. But this week's dire economic news, following on from the ICAC fallout where key Labor figures have been accused of corruption, and Rudd's popularity is likely to be at Julia Gillard levels within weeks. Labor is already facing a clean-out in New South Wales, and although Rudd has clawed back some ground in Queensland, it is not going to be enough to save Labor's bacon.

As fate would have it, we have a trip to Australia planned the weekend before the Federal Election. It will be a most interesting time to visit, with the campaign reaching a crescendo. In the meantime, we're sure that Australians can't wait to consign the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd government to the dustbin of history.

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