The campaign for Australia's September 7 election continues to fall Opposition Leader Tony Abbott's way as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd struggles to sell both himself and his policies.
Opinion polls are locked into a trend pointing to a Coalition victory, hardened by a series of surveys in key marginal seats predicting Labor wipeouts. Unless Rudd can dramatically reverse these trends in the next three weeks, the Government will struggle to retain the seats it already holds, let alone pick up the extras needed to deliver victory.
Both Rudd and Abbott are set on a do-or-die battle, rejecting alliances with the Greens to form minority Governments, although Labor does now stand a good chance of winning back the Melbourne seat held by sole Greens Lower House MP Adam Bandt.
Rudd's election-opening promise of a "New Way"is falling flat. The message is not resonating with voters under daily siege from Opposition attack advertisements reminding them of six chaotic years of Labor rule.
Labor is returning fire with a scare campaign warning of a slash-and-burn Government under Abbott, who has yet to announce the details of his economic policy and its costings.
They will not be revealed until the final week of the campaign.
Voters will have another chance to assess both leaders in the next face-to-face confrontation at a nationally televised "people's forum" at Brisbane's Broncos League Club on Wednesday.
In the meantime, they have the daily run of headlines and policy statements pouring out through newspapers, social media, television and radio.
So far, Abbott has dominated these.
Appearing confident and assured, he has narrowed his campaign to a small set of key points, hammering them home through slogans and short grabs that present a constant, consistent and potent message.
He has also successfully dismantled the wall Rudd had built to protect the Government on its most vulnerable fronts - the economy, carbon tax and asylum-seekers.
Abbott has sliced through Labor's economic arguments with a blunt axe, reinforcing perceptions that the nation is in deep and worsening strife.
He has ignored Rudd's move to end the carbon tax a year early and move to an emissions trading scheme, lumping them together in a promise to dump it as soon as he wins office.
And while Labor's harsh stand on asylum-seekers has narrowed the gap significantly on the issue, Abbott has kept it alive and to the front of voters' minds by reminding them of the numbers that have arrived since Rudd won power in 2007 and announcing further draconian measures of his own.
Rudd, in contrast, is lacking fire and energy.
His appearances are lacklustre. He has no simple, clear message to define his campaign.
The television coverage here is somewhat reminiscent of the 2005 New Zealand General Election, where the media had a clear and obvious bias against Don Brash. By way of example, there has been barely a mention on TV of Rudd having cheated in a televised debate last week, using notes when that had been prohibited.
But the numbers are not stacking up well for Rudd; read on:
After rallying his troops, Rudd conceded he was struggling and told reporters: "I've been in a few tight spots before and I've managed to fight a way forward. I intend to fight my way forward."
More promises came over the weekend. Rudd pledged hundreds of millions of dollars more for the car industry and big hospital spending in western Sydney; Abbott more money for indigenous employment and a parental leave scheme that would provide six months' leave on full pay plus superannuation for new mothers.
The polls continue to swing his way. A Galaxy poll in News Ltd papers yesterday gave a 52-48 per cent lead to the Coalition, with a series of other polls pointing to Labor losses in key marginal seats.
These include the Brisbane seat of Forde, being contested by former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie, parachuted in to bolster Labor's hopes.
The Beattie move was controversial, and looks to have back-fired on Labor in spectacular fashion. Labor is facing a rout in Queensland. And today there's more bad news for Mr Rudd, this time from South Australia.
As luck would have it, we have a brief trip to Australia planned at the end of the month. It will be most interesting to be on the ground over there for a couple of days just a week out from the election on 7th September.
Kevin Rudd's honeymoon was brief; now it would seem that the Australian voters can't wait to sign the divorce papers.
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