What does the 3News #Labour'sGotTalent poll mean?

3News has been polling for #Labour'sGotTalent. And the results are interesting; very interesting indeed; check this out:

This is really interesting in many ways. Firstly, no candidate has an outright majority, so the next few days are going to see some horse-trading going on. But secondly, and perhaps more importantly, David Cunliffe may not actually be as popular as he thinks he is.

We're really surprised to see Cunliffe at less than 40% support. And when that support is drilled down just to Labour supporters, he only reaches 45.6%.

Earlier this afternoon, but presumably with knowledge of the poll results (he's been dropping hints all day) Patrick Gower posted this on the 3News website:

Shane Jones may be the outsider in Labour's leadership race - but he is also set to be the kingmaker.

The voting system the Labour Party is using for the leadership means Jones will likely end up with the casting vote.

Jones may well decide whether the leader is David Cunliffe or Grant Robertson.

This is the big development in the race right now.

I have new information about what's happening in the behind the scenes machinations.

I have spoken to the key MPs and party hacks "doing the numbers" in all three camps and they all say: "This is all about the 'Jones second preference'."

These people are some of the craftiest and hard-headed political operatives New Zealand has ever seen and they have all zoned in on the "Jones second preference"

But we reckon that all bets might be off now, with Grant Robertson relegated to third place; how does a Jones/Robertson (in that order) ticket sound?

There's one common denominator here; those supporting Shane Jones and those supporting Grant Robertson are united in not wanting David Cunliffe to lead the Labour Party. So what have they got to lose by voting for Jones? If he can steal next year's election, he will be a hero. If not, Grant Robertson can succeed him then.

The loser in all of this tonight is David Cunliffe. If he doesn't lead Labour after #Labour'sGotTalent, he never will. And that is starting to look like a distinct possibility. Mr Cunliffe may even decide that he has bigger fish to fry.

Tonight's poll has really set the cat amongst the pigeons. The ramifications are going to be fascinating.

David's winter of discontent

The latest 3News/Reid Research poll came out last night. It was hidden somewhat by the drama of yesterday's earthquake affecting central New Zealand. But the result is nonetheless an aftershock for David Shearer who has already been put on notice by his caucus due to poor poll results.

Here's how Patrick Gower called it:

The Labour Party's internal troubles have seen it drop again in the latest 3 News/Reid Research poll, with Prime Minister John Key and National clear winners and able to govern alone.

Labour's so-called "man-ban" got leader David Shearer plenty of attention, for all the wrong reasons.

And it's got Labour going the wrong way on this poll – down, a drop of 2.1 percent.

"It's a wake up call for us," says Mr Shearer. "People want us to be focussed on them and not on Labour Party internal matters."

"The Labour Party is focussed on the Labour Party and National is focussed on the country," says Mr Key.

There have been questions about Mr Shearer's leadership. One Labour MP told 3 News Mr Shearer has until spring, two months, to improve the polls or he could be gone by the end of year.

Gower also described this poll as David Shearer's "winter of discontent", and the timing couldn't be worse. Labour MP's congregate in Napier later today for a caucus retreat, and it's highly likely that even if Mr Shearer's leadership isn't being discussed at the retreat itself, it'll certainly be the topic of discussion in informal meetings in smoke-filled rooms.