John Armstrong rips into the Greens this morning, accusing them of hypocrisy over the asset sales referendum. Under the heading Referendums past their sell-by date, Armstrong opines (with our emphasis added):
The time has surely arrived to dump New Zealand's failed two-decade-old experiment with American-style citizens-initiated referendums.
Anyone questioning that recommendation should look no further than some of the self-serving behaviour following last Monday's official authorisation of such a plebiscite on National's partial privatisation programme.
The will of the people - David Lange once observed - was a fickle beast. It could be an awful tyrant; it could be a terrible slave.
Someone should have told the Greens. They are happy to accept the will of the people when it comes to the results of the forthcoming referendum on asset sales. But not so when it came to the 2009 referendum on smacking. That is hypocrisy, pure and simple. If you accept the will of the people once, you have to accept it for good. And that is not a recipe for good government.
Ouch! But Armstrong is dead right; the Greens' hypocrisy is there for all to see, and he is dead right to have called them on it.
He's not done though; read on:
If you do accept it, you accept your Cabinet decisions are going to be proscribed by referendum. The Greens would not like that happening to them. So why impose such restraints on National.
There has been a lot of talk this week about the will of the people. The Greens and Labour argued that had been ignored by John Key following the referendum announcement.
The Prime Minister was accused of being anti-democratic in refusing to halt the upcoming floats of shares in Meridian Energy and Genesis Energy, plus the sale of shares in Air New Zealand, until the referendum has taken place. He was castigated for saying National would ignore the result of the referendum because it had a mandate for the sale of up to 49 per cent of those state-owned electricity generators courtesy of its stunning result at the 2011 election.
To top things off, Key then dismissed the referendum as an "utter waste of money".
That line got wide pick-up with editorial writers across the country asking why $9 million in taxpayers' money was being spent on a postal referendum solely so Labour and the Greens could make a political point that everybody already knew - that a lot more people oppose asset sales than support them.
Sensing they were on the wrong side of the argument regarding cost, the two major Opposition parties the next day offered to help pass legislation which would enable the referendum to be held at the same time as next year's general election - a move that would be cheaper than a postal ballot. That remained conditional, however, on National putting asset sales on hold until then.
That drew a scathing response from Acting Prime Minister Bill English, who said it was typical of Labour to offer something that was not within its power.
Suddenly it was apparent the referendum horse had bolted in the four months since the petition seeking a referendum initially failed for lack of sufficient valid signatures. The public's desire for a referendum has cooled substantially. Once again, John Key had outmanoeuvred his opponents and captured the high ground when they thought they held it.
John Armstrong is dead right; the asset sales horse has bolted. Mighty River Power shares were sold some months ago, and the sky hasn't fallen, unless people foolishly bought the shares hoping to make a fast buck. That was certainly not our intent when we bought MRP shares, and nor will it be when we buy Meridian shares; they are a long-term investment in New Zealand's future.And Armstrong gives us a bit of a political history lesson:The country's politicians should daily give thanks to Sir Douglas Graham, National's astute Justice Minister for much of the 1990s, for making the referendums non-binding.
He was obliged to implement a promise inserted in National's 1990 election manifesto following demands from the more reactionary elements in the National Party
When the law allowing voters recourse to these devices was passed by Parliament 20 years ago, Labour's Michael Cullen described the measure as "an ill-thought-out piece of political flummery" and predicted correctly that it would end up satisfying no one. He was too kind. Making it mandatory for governments to implement the results of referendums risks making good government nigh on impossible.
Making such referendums non-binding on governments, however, renders those referendums as next to useless.
Both John Armstrong, and (dare we say it?) Michael Cullen are/were dead right. There is nothing to be gained from this referendum. It is solely an exercise in political posturing and positioning with the 2014 General Election in mind. If the public dislikes asset sales sufficiently, it will vote National out next year. And if partial asset sales are not seen as particularly offensive or significant, National may well be re-elected.National campaigned on its Mixed Ownership Model policy, and formed a government under the conditions of the MMP system of democracy. That gave them a mandate to implement EVERY policy they had campaigned on. By contrast Labour, the Greens, NZ First and Mana all campaigned against asset sales, but did not win enough public support to form an MMP government.It's called democracy folks. It may not be perfect, but it sure beats the alternatives.
Simon Bridges wins a rare accolade from the Dominion-Post for the changes he announced last week to workplace health and safety law. The Dom-Post editorial this morning opines:
It is a rare feat for a government of any hue to embark on changes to workplace laws that win the approval of employers and unions alike.
Labour Minister Simon Bridges has managed to achieve that with the overhaul of health and safety rules and regulations he revealed last week.
The package activates nearly all the recommendations from the Independent Task Force on Workplace Health and Safety, which was set up following the Pike River Coal mining tragedy.
The fact the measures have been broadly welcomed by the Council of Trade Unions and Business NZ is a good indication the task force struck the right balance between the need to reduce on-the-job accidents and strangling businesses with red tape.
The changes include tougher penalties for health and safety breaches, clear guidelines on the roles and responsibilities of everyone from the boardroom to the smoko room and a new agency, WorkSafe, to police the law and target high-risk industries. They are long overdue.
It would seem indeed that Simon Bridges has managed to bridge the gap between the expectations of unions and the workers they represent, and business owners. That is commendable.Simon Bridges' ministerial career has been brief so far, but he is certainly on an upward track. Should National secure a third term leading the Government in 2014, he is likely to be further elevated up the pecking order.
Meanwhile the changes that Bridges plans to implement reinforce the message that workplace health and safety is everyone's responsibility; from the business owner, right down to the most lowly worker. The proposals are sensible and pragmatic, but most importantly place a significant emphasis on injury prevention. A significant reform of workplace safety laws is overdue, with the present legislation being 20 years old. Well done to Simon Bridges and his officials for the work that they have done in rolling this policy out to widespread acclaim.
This one comes from the NZ Herald:
If ever a party was on shaky ground to accuse another of cronyism, it is the Labour Party. The years between 1999 and 2008 were filled with patsy appointments to all manner of boards and commissions. One only has to mention the name of Dianne Yates, who was lured from her Hamilton electorate seat into retirement by the promise of a seat on the board of Food Standards Australia NZ.
And then of course there was Georgina Beyer; the world's first transgender MP lamented long and loud because Labour DIDN'T give her any plum jobs when she retired from Parliament. Such was the culture of cronyism in Labour that a few retirement perks were expected.
So for Labour to be now trying to make political capital by alleging cronyism by the Government is opportunistic and hypocritical.
UPDATE: Cameron Slater gives an overview of just how widespread Labour's cronyism was
Parliament is in recess at the moment, and David Shearer has barely been seen or heard from. He's even more likely to bunker down after the latest Roy Morgan poll that has been released tonight. Here's the news he didn't want to hear:
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 31% (down 0.5%); Greens are 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.
But it's not just the state of the respective parties (and especially HIS party) that will be causing Mr Shearer dyspepsia tonight; read on:
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 3.5pts to 128.5 (the highest since January 16-29, 2012) with 58% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
That the Morgan Confidence Rating is so high is telling. Interest rates remain at historic lows. Annual inflation is less than 1%. The economy is growing. And the mere fact that the GCR has moved to its highest level pretty much since the 2011 General Election suggests that voters simply do not have an appetite for change.That spells bad news for David Shearer and Labour. Who's having a BBQ this weekend, we wonder?
If David Shearer was hoping for some poll respite this week, he will be sadly disappointed. The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, and the news for Labour is all bad; check out the graph below:
The Roy Morgan organisation reports:
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a jump in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 46.5% (up 2.5% since June 3-16, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is little changed with the Maori Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 31.5% (down 1.5%); Greens are 13% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 2.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 1%).
Probably the best news of all in this poll is that NZ First's support has almost halved, to 3.5%. Given that between NZ First and the Conservatives some 5.5% of the vote would be wasted if neither party was to win an electorate, National's position is strong. Conversely, Labour's position this far into National's second term will be incredibly disappointing, especially to those MP's who have voiced their concern to Patrick Gower, Jessica Mutch and other members of the Press Gallery.
And all the while, spring just got another day closer...
Fran O'Sullivan's opinion-piece in this morning's Herald is worth a read in its entirety. But this bit really stood out: Labour's Auckland issues spokesman, Phil Twyford, was yesterday reduced to carping about the cost of the city's transport projects and complaining that the timing for some of the construction was still vague.
"The Prime Minister is talking about a $10 billion commitment to three projects but in his speech he was completely silent about how he is going to pay for them.
"Where on earth is the money coming from?"
Key could have said "You work it out chump, I'm unlikely to be PM by the time a future New Zealand Government has to seriously put its hands in its pockets".
But he later confined himself to telling journalists it could come from various sources, including (take that, Labour!) the Future Investment Fund, into which his Government is tucking the proceeds of its partial privatisation programme; the Land Transport Fund, which holds the proceeds of petrol excise tax and road-user charges; taxpayers through the Consolidated Fund and even the private sector through some nifty public/private sector partnerships (PPPs).
What Key didn't say - and won't until the Government has surety on the numbers - is that the fiscal track is on an upswing and there is a strong possibility Finance Minister Bill English will be able to post a Budget surplus well before 2014/2015 (some Beehive insiders suggest the surplus milestone could be reached even by the end of this year, though that looks optimistic).
When I put the question to him down at the media scrum at SkyCity's conference centre, Key deftly sidestepped it.
But he later conceded that getting government debt down to under 20 per cent of GDP would be the next priority.
In other words, yes, the fiscal track is moving very nicely, thank you.
It must be excruciatingly dreadful for Labour.
Its "show me the money" challenge (delivered without the panache that Key used to slaughter former Labour leader Phil Goff during a debate at the last election) fell flat. Its party strategists know that pushing that line of questioning simply risks Labour being seen as churlish.
But what really galls the Opposition is the fact that Key has stolen Labour's thunder, particularly in Auckland.
Key is now "besties" not only with Auckland Mayor Len Brown, who was positively radiant as he openly rejoiced yesterday that the Government was "backing Auckland", but also with Christchurch Mayor Bob Parker.
Brown will pocket Key's commitment as an endorsement of his own mayoralty, given that he based his first run at the top job on delivering three big-ticket, next-generation transport projects.
And Christchurch mayoral challenger and Labour MP Lianne Dalziel was reduced to complaining from the sidelines as Key and Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee cosied up publicly with Parker to announce agreement had been reached on $4.8 billion of investment in Christchurch - $2.9 billion of it coming from the Crown and $1.9 billion committed by the Christchurch City Council - so that projects like the new stadium and a convention centre can proceed.
Key couldn't resist having a flick at Labour during yesterday's stand-up, telling reporters he could understand why the public wasn't warming to Labour because it was "too negative".
What John Key has announced in Christchurch and Auckland in successive days this week is incredibly clever politics. Those on the Left who deride Key as a political lightweight have been left with an entire omelette on their faces.Key may not have spent his entire adult life frequenting the same smoke-filled back rooms and union halls that they have, weighing up everything from a political perspective. But that does not mean that the Prime Minister is any less skilled at the Dark Arts of politics as they pride themselves on being.
Labour has been out-boxed this week. The public now knows exactly which of the big-ticket items in Christchurch will proceed, and who is paying for what. And a blueprint has been laid out for huge investment both in roading and in public transport in Auckland over the next 15-20 years. John Key has even been canny enough to leave room for the CBD rail loop to come on-stream sooner should growth in the Auckland CBD happen faster than anticipated.
And as O'Sullivan notes, "the fiscal track is moving very nicely, thank you"; excellent news indeed. What a coup it would be for the PM if the fiscal track had moved along so nicely that Bill English was able to announce a small budget surplus for 2013-14, instead of 2014-15, as forecast. We certainly wouldn't bet against it.
This has been National's week on centre stage; of that there is no doubt whatsoever. We wonder if those 65 days until the beginning of spring can't come around soon enough for David Shearer.
Claire Trevett comments on the differences currently between National and Labour:
If polling tracks were Roads of National Significance, then National is in a people-mover on the Waikato Expressway, occasionally zooming up and down gentle inclines but confronting little that has yet forced it to alter its speed.
Labour, meanwhile, is clinging to a battered rickshaw rattling along pothole-ridden, precipitous back roads hoping like hell to hit a flat stretch. Alongside are the outriders of the Greens and NZ First, trying to pop the rickshaw's tyres so they can purloin its passengers for themselves.
We note that Ms Trevett's comments were penned before yesterday's Auckland announcements, before the people-mover morphed into a Lexus, speeding away leaving the "battered rickshaw" parked on the side of the road. Oh dear; how sad; never mind...
Aaron Gilmore is hinting at a return to politics on his blog; he writes:
Many locals have asked what am I going to do as part of this. The answer to that is simple. The by election is not likely till after show week. So good things come to those who wait. After being hounded out of public office, after being called all sorts of things that are un true, other than being rude to a barman. After being ridiculed from initially trying to apologise for the behaviour of someone else’s wasted girlfriend, as well as my rudeness, (more on all that rubbish some other time), I have learnt to hold my cards very closely. Bottomline, I do not want to see Labour hold onto the seat, as I do not think that is the best thing for the people.
Somehow though, we strongly doubt that it will be for National; Stuff reports: Former National MP Aaron Gilmore would be likely to stand as an independent - and lose - if he contested the Christchurch East by-election, Prime Minister John Key says.
Gilmore hinted on his blog at a return to politics but did not specify National.
Asked what he thought about that, Key gave a dismissive ''yeah'', adding, ''I'll leave you to interpret it.''
Gilmore said many had asked what he was going to do.
''The answer to that is simple: ''The by-election is not likely till after Show Week. So good things come to those who wait.''
It speaks volumes for Aaron Gilmore's inflated sense of self-importance that he may even entertain thoughts of a return to Parliament, let alone seeking a National electorate nomination. He burned his political bridges with the National Party when he misled John Key over the events at Hanmer that fateful evening.It is hardly surprising that the PM is dismissive of Gilmore's coded message. Whether or not Aaron Gilmore can read between the lines is another matter.
For the last wee while Labour, the Greens, NZ First and Mana have been involved in an "inquiry" into a supposed crisis in New Zealand manufacturing.
We haven't heard much from them lately, and this may explain why; NBR reports: New Zealand manufacturing activity rose in May to the highest level since June 2004, led by new orders and production, stoking optimism the economy may be picking up pace.
The BNZ-BusinessNZ performance of manufacturing index rose 4 points to 59.2 in May, the highest level in nine years and the strongest reading for May since the survey began in 2002.
The monthly survey suggests manufacturing may not be as weak as suggested in government figure this week showing sales volumes fell 0.6 percent in the first quarter and indicates companies are confident enough to take on more workers.
Machinery and equipment manufacturing led gains in May, with a reading of 67.4.
"Today's PMI puts upside risk on our manufacturing and overall GDP forecasts over coming quarters," BNZ economist Doug Steel says. "The chances that New Zealand's economic growth this year is stronger than we forecast are increasing."
This is great news for both the manufacturing sector and for the economy in general. Growth in manufacturing will filter through to job growth, and as we have noted previously, job growth is really the last piece in the economic puzzle.Of course Labour, the Greens, NZ First and Mana won't like this because their inquiry stunt has been undermined. But it is yet another sign that the conservative financial policies adopted by Bill English and John Key were the right medicine for the times, and that the New Zealand economy has weathered the global economic downturn better than most.If the economy is the most significant election issue in 2014, Key and English are justified in asking the New Zealand electorate for a third term.
