Is Gillard a goner?

It's all on for young and old in the Australian Labor Party; the Sydney Morning Herald reports:

Julia Gillard's controversial attempt to rescue Labor by claiming Tony Abbott would marginalise women and change abortion rights has backfired, with support among male voters collapsing.
In a finding certain to ratchet up pressure on the Prime Minister's besieged leadership, the latest Fairfax-Nielsen poll has found Labor's standing has continued to slide, led entirely by a 7 per cent exodus of men, while failing to lift substantially among female voters.
According to the monthly survey, the ALP's primary vote now has a psychologically devastating ''2'' in front of it with less than three months to the election on September 14.

Ms Gillard also has gone backwards as preferred prime minister, giving her the lowest approval rating in a year.
The poll coincides with the final sittings of the 43rd Parliament and shows that at 29 per cent, Labor's primary support has slipped below the 30 per cent barrier for only the second time this year. With the Coalition attracting 47 per cent of first-preference votes, Labor trails by a staggering 18 points on primary votes, putting the overall two party-preferred vote at 43-57 in favour of the Coalition or 42-58 based on how the 1400 respondents said they would allocate preferences.
If reflected at the election, that would mean a 7 per cent swing to the Coalition on the 50-50 hung Parliament result of 2010, and mean the loss of 30 or more seats, virtually halving Labor's representation now.
But the poll also shows that with Kevin Rudd in charge, almost the entire advantage to the Coalition would be wiped out, taking Labor's primary vote up to 40 per cent, the Coalition's down to 42 per cent, and the two party-preferred split to a dead-heat 50-50.

Here's why speculation is so rife that, in the words of the old Sam Cooke classic, a change is gonna come:

As nervous Labor MPs gather in Canberra for what many fear will be a tumultuous session in which the leadership issue may explode, the poll confirms Mr Rudd remains personally more popular than Ms Gillard with a preferred Labor leader rating of 58 per cent to her 32 per cent.

But among Labor voters, Ms Gillard still holds a 6 point lead. Mr Rudd's 26 point lead over Ms Gillard overall was beaten by the gap between former Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull and his successor Mr Abbott.
Mr Turnbull is twice as popular among all voters as Mr Abbott at 62-32, once again confirming that neither main party leader is popular and that voters strongly prefer the former leaders.
Arriving at Canberra airport on Monday morning, Mr Rudd said he had ''noting further to add'' on the leadership question.
''I have nothing further to add on what I've said before,'' he told reporters.
Earlier this month, Mr Rudd said he was not a candidate for the Labor leadership and ''I do not see any circumstances under which I would return to the leadership''.
He said that his purpose in Canberra this week - as it had been in travelling around the country in support of Labor MPs - was to stop Mr Abbott from becoming the next prime minister of Australia.
''He is the single, most . . . extreme right-wing, political leader that the Liberal Party has ever thrown up,'' Mr Rudd said.

We have little doubt that things are going to get pretty acrimonious when the ALP caucus gets together later today. We've heard radio reports this morning suggesting that Rudd has the numbers, but he was alleged to have the numbers a couple of months ago, and he bottled out.

But it's clear now that Labor is headed for an unprecedented defeat in September under Julia Gillard. The threat of impending unemployment for so many ALP MP's may be a strong motivator to try and do something desperate to limit the carnage. Rudd may not win for the ALP, but he may stem the bleeding, and save a few of his fellow MP's.

We will be watching developments from the West Island with some interest. But it seems that one way or the other, the end of the Gillard era is nigh.