Has Labour been polling in Christchurch East?

We've seen and heard a couple of stories in the last 24 hours that indicate that the Labour Party is very nervous about the Christchurch East by-election later in the year. That by-election will be necessary due to Lianne Dalziel's resignation from Parliament when voting closes in the local body elections later in the year.

The first story was on One News last night. TVNZ political reporter suggested that Labour will ask the Greens not to stand a candidate in Christchurch East, to give Labour a better chance. David Shearer said that no decision has yet been made, but that remained an option for Labour. Here's the story.

The other one is from this morning's Tim Fookes talkback show on Newstalk ZB out of Wellington. Fookes had Trevor Mallard as a guest on his programme, and later tweeted this:

We didn't hear the interview, but we don't imagine that Tim Fookes simply made the story up. So we wonder if Labour has been doing some internal polling in Christchurch East, and is deeply concerned at what the polls show.

Labour has held the Christchurch East electorate (even when known by other names, such as Avon) since 1922, and it is almost unthinkable that they could lose it. At both the 2008 and 2011 General Elections, Lianne Dalziel enjoyed majorities of more than 5000 votes over National's Aaron Gilmore.

Gilmore most certainly won't be the National candidate for the by-election. And at this stage, the Labour nomination seems to be a contest between James Caygill, son of former Labour Party Minister David Caygill and Clayton Cosgrove, who lost his electorate in 2011. We have however heard rumours that Sue Moroney might be parachuted in from Waikato to contest the seat for Labour.

Christchurch East should be a shoo-in for Labour. So why are key Labour Party people getting so worried; are the polls THAT bad?