Tracy Watkins reflects on the potential implications of yesterday's Fairfax-Ipsos poll for David Shearer. Under the headline Shearer can't get any political traction Watkins opines:The only relief for Labour leader David Shearer in today's Fairfax Media-Ipsos poll is that things haven't got worse. But that is small solace when the terrible 20s are just a couple of percentage points around the corner.
It is not entirely fair to assess the results solely on Labour's performance, of course.
As has so often happened over the last five years, the polling period was dominated by crisis headlines - this time over the Fonterra milk contamination scare. That meant two things: Opposition parties were starved of oxygen, and voters were probably more focused on the Government's performance during the crisis.
But even soMr Shearer has fired some big policy shots to grab attention, including a blatantly populist pitch to first-home buyers with a plan to ban foreign speculators from the housing market, and build tens of thousands of cheap new homes.
He has moved to arrest the inertia in his back office by bringing back former chief press secretary, Fran Mold, and installing her as his chief of staff.
And he has been quick to latch on to the right side of issues like the row over snapper bag limits.
But his leadership still seems to be at half throttle.
Mr Shearer's leadership may indeed have been at "half throttle" until Question Time on Tuesday. During Q3, he went to full throttle, and later when he did the dead fish stunt he was in overdrive. The only trouble is that he was in reverse gear!
And Ms Watkins notes that any gains he has made this year have evapourated; read on:
Even voters who flirted briefly with him at the start of the year have either switched off, or been turned off, by hapless episodes like the man ban, or the debacle yesterday over his request for a not-so-secret meeting with Prime Minister John Key to find a way through the impasse over legislation extending the powers of the Government Communications Security Bureau.
The intention behind him seeking the meeting was good - the execution was not. And it was just another reminder to Labour that their leader will have to think a lot faster on his feet on the campaign trail if he wants to get one up on Mr Key.
David Shearer's performance on Tuesday was cringeworthy. He was absent for Question Time yesterday, only returning to the House in time to lead Labour's opposition to the GCSB Bill, but even then his speech was laboured (pardon the political pun) and lacking the kind of authority one would expect from a leader.Can Mr Shearer improve his communication enough to go head-to-head with John Key in an election debate? Or will Labour even take that risk? Spring is just a matter of days away. UPDATE: Just us we posted this, we saw this tweet:Has spring sprung?
The Left was cock-a-hoop yesterday when the Roy Morgan poll reverted to its usual trend of swinging in the wind back in their favour. But they will be less enthusiastic about the Fairfax-Ipsos poll released today; Tracy Watkins reports on Stuff:
David Shearer's big punt on bold new policy has failed to fire, with the latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll suggesting he is having no impact on voters.
The poll shows Labour continues to wallow in the doldrums on just 31.6 per cent, a five-point slide from the start of the year. In contrast, National has emerged all but unscathed from a difficult few months to poll at 48.3 per cent - down about one point from May, but up more than four on the start of the year.
The Greens are on 12.3 per cent support, NZ First 2.8 per cent and the Conservatives 1.4 per cent, outpolling the other minor parties including ACT and United Future, despite being outside Parliament.
The result will plunge Mr Shearer's leadership further into question, and suggests the divisions laid bare over Labour's so-called "man ban" may have cancelled out any potential gains from bold new policy promises, including a ban on foreign speculators in an overheated housing market.
And he is not out of the woods yet - those divisions could resurface at the party's annual conference later this year, when party rank and file are likely to debate female quotas again. A loss in the long-held Christchurch East seat in a by-election later this year could put Mr Shearer under further pressure.
The poll was conducted during the period when a milk contamination crisis erupted, and when National was in the news over a housing package announced at its annual conference.
It also came on the back of a difficult few months for National, after its handling of the Henry inquiry was in the headlines.
Prime Minister John Key has also been under fire over his handling of legislation extending the powers of the Government Communications Security Bureau.
Roy Morgan polls far more frequently than any of the other pollsters. Before LabourGreen gets its hopes up, they will need to see yesterday's result repeated over several consecutive polls. Recent Roy Morgan polls suggest that is unlikely; for some reason that poll is as volatile as Trevor Mallard when he is on a collision course with the Speaker.The GCSB Bill will pass into law today, the sun will rise tomorrow, and the scaremongering of the Left will be exposed when there is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders. LabourGreen will need to find another stick with which to beat John Key and National, and two dead snapper just ain't gonna cut it! In the meantime the economy is growing faster that economists had predicted, winter seems to have ended, and the Government is getting on with the job of running the country. The days are getting longer, and with it the mood for political change will ease. That is bad news for David Shearer, especially given the revelations from Question Time yesterday.
