David Shearer's big punt on bold new policy has failed to fire, with the latest Fairfax Media-Ipsos political poll suggesting he is having no impact on voters.
The poll shows Labour continues to wallow in the doldrums on just 31.6 per cent, a five-point slide from the start of the year. In contrast, National has emerged all but unscathed from a difficult few months to poll at 48.3 per cent - down about one point from May, but up more than four on the start of the year.
The Greens are on 12.3 per cent support, NZ First 2.8 per cent and the Conservatives 1.4 per cent, outpolling the other minor parties including ACT and United Future, despite being outside Parliament.
The result will plunge Mr Shearer's leadership further into question, and suggests the divisions laid bare over Labour's so-called "man ban" may have cancelled out any potential gains from bold new policy promises, including a ban on foreign speculators in an overheated housing market.
And he is not out of the woods yet - those divisions could resurface at the party's annual conference later this year, when party rank and file are likely to debate female quotas again. A loss in the long-held Christchurch East seat in a by-election later this year could put Mr Shearer under further pressure.
The poll was conducted during the period when a milk contamination crisis erupted, and when National was in the news over a housing package announced at its annual conference.
It also came on the back of a difficult few months for National, after its handling of the Henry inquiry was in the headlines.
Prime Minister John Key has also been under fire over his handling of legislation extending the powers of the Government Communications Security Bureau.
Roy Morgan polls far more frequently than any of the other pollsters. Before LabourGreen gets its hopes up, they will need to see yesterday's result repeated over several consecutive polls. Recent Roy Morgan polls suggest that is unlikely; for some reason that poll is as volatile as Trevor Mallard when he is on a collision course with the Speaker.
The GCSB Bill will pass into law today, the sun will rise tomorrow, and the scaremongering of the Left will be exposed when there is no mass surveillance of New Zealanders. LabourGreen will need to find another stick with which to beat John Key and National, and two dead snapper just ain't gonna cut it!
In the meantime the economy is growing faster that economists had predicted, winter seems to have ended, and the Government is getting on with the job of running the country. The days are getting longer, and with it the mood for political change will ease. That is bad news for David Shearer, especially given the revelations from Question Time yesterday.
