Could Labour lose Ikaroa-Rawhiti?

The Mana Party is bouyant about the chances of its candidate in the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election, Te Hamua Nikora. Scoop has this media release from Hone Harawira:

MANA UP! according to Labour’s Poll
Thursday, 27 June 2013, 9:06 am
Press Release: Mana Party
MANA UP! according to Labour’s Poll
MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira

It’s Game On
“Labour’s poll confirms what Maori voters have been saying all along - this seat was never Labour’s, it was Parekura’s” said MANA Leader and MP for Te Tai Tokerau Hone Harawira about the Labour Party’s internal poll showing the Ikaroa Rawhiti election was a two horse race “with Te Hamua running neck and neck with Labour’s candidate”.
“All the online polls have Te Hamua in front, advanced voting is up, and the vox-pops taken by media working the campaign have Te Hamua in the lead as well”.
“Political commentators living in Auckland and Wellington seem to have been caught out by the Labour poll result, but they shouldn’t have been given the strength of all the other polls” said Harawira.  “I can’t think what they’re going to say when it’s announced that the country’s newest MP is Ikaroa-Rawhiti’s favourite son, Te Hamua Nikora”.
“People living in the area will tell you that the most visible presence has been Te Hamua’s MANA crew, and they’ve been hitting the streets 24/7, door-knocking, delivering pamphlets, singing, dancing, driving people to the polls” said Harawira proudly. “They were even out during that massive storm that shut Wellington down and sent the big chill up the coast”.

“With MANA on the rise and Labour nose-diving in today’s polls, this by-election is reflecting Labour’s collapse all around the country”.
“Voters in Ikaroa Rawhiti should be congratulated for not getting sucked in Labour, whose candidate will get in on the list in the general election and be dumped into the back benches (where they put Parekura). And I thank them for being bold enough to back Te Hamua. He’s different, but that’s what makes him, and this electorate special”.
“More than any of the others, I think Labour’s poll shows that the people know that Te Hamua is the candidate that most reflects the heart and soul of the electorate”.
“3 days to go” said Harawira. “Te Hamua’s on a roll and Ikaroa Rawhiti deserves the energy that he brings”.
ENDS

We'd normally be inclined to take anything that Hone Harawira said with a large piece or rock salt. However we have seen one or two online polls which do indeed show Te Hamua Nikora doing as well as or better than Labour's candidate Meka Whaitiri.

The late Parekura Horomia had a vice-like grip on Ikaroa-Rawhiti. Could it be, as Harawira suggests, that this was a vote for Parekura and not for Labour?

It is almost unthinkable that Labour could lose this by-election. But wouldn't it set the cat amongst the pigeons if that's exactly what happened on Saturday night?