High noon for Shearer

It's an important day in the political career of David Shearer today, as the voters of Ikaroa-Rawhiti go to the polls to elect a successor to the late Parekura Horomia. 3News reports:

There's more than just the Ikaroa-Rawhiti seat on the line for the Labour Party and its leader David Shearer this weekend.

Shearer is an unpopular leader under a cloud of poor poll results, and his Australian Labor counterpart Julia Gillard has just been deposed in a coup.

This makes for an unholy trinity of things the Labour Party wouldn't want to happen in isolation, let alone together.

Add to this a Labour MP telling 3 News their leader has been put on notice and a change in leadership can't be ruled out by the end of the year, and David Shearer really has some problems on his hands.

Though he is adamant he'll still be leader come next year's election.

"That's ridiculous. I don't know who this person is, but I was confirmed as leader only four months ago and nothing's changed."

Labour needs to win Ikaroa-Rawhiti, and to win well. But the Mana Party candidate has done an outstanding job in campaigning, and looks certain to steal away a large portion of Horomia's 6500 vote majority. If the Maori Party and Green candidates can siphon off enough of the vote, Labour could be in trouble today.

This is a seat that Labour should hold with ease. But it was very much Parekura's seat, not Labour's. The Labour Party has poured a huge amount of resources into Ikaroa-Rawhiti, trying to ensure that its candidate wins convincingly.

And she needs to; anything less than a significant win by Labour (we'd suggest by around 5000 votes) will be a moral defeat for Labour. And who will be to blame for that?

We have no difficulty whatsoever believing Patrick Gower's leak from within the Labour caucus that Mr Shearer has been put on notice with regard to his lacklustre performance as leader. And if Labour merely squeaks home today in Ikaroa-Rawhiti, or if the unthinkable should happen, all eyes will be on the leader.

If you're going to comment on this post, please don't do so in a way that might influence anyone voting in Ikaroa-Rawhiti; we like to obey the law! That's why we have refrained from mentioning any of the candidates by name. We will look forward to an announcement later this evening as to who will succeed Mr Horomia. We're sure that David Shearer will have more than a passing interest in the result as well.