Counting the days

The Labour Party caucus is leaking like a sieve. Patrick Gower reports via 3News:

Labour leader David Shearer has been put on two months' notice by his own MPs - if the poll ratings don't improve, his leadership will be challenged.

A Labour MP told 3 News today that Mr Shearer had until spring - two months away - to pick up his and Labour's performance.

The MP, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "The caucus is just really flat. It's not panic or anxiety just yet, but a couple more bad polls and it will be. David's got a couple more months. A change in leadership cannot be ruled out before the end of the year.

"Spring time is when people will get really nervous, just over a year out from the election. We don't want to get into the "Goff-zone", where it's too late to change the leader, but you've got someone in there the public just don't want -the phone is just off the hook."

It is rare for Labour MPs to speak so openly of leadership concerns.

The MP who spoke to 3 News is not a loyal supporter of leadership rival David Cunliffe. That makes the comments more significant as it shows there are broader concerns in the caucus about Mr Shearer's performance.

This is a significant scoop for the terrier-like Paddy Gower. And if it is true (and there have been no denials thus far), the Labour Party must be very worried.

Rumours have been doing the rounds for a week of so that Labour's own polling is showing a 2 in front of the party's support. If that is the case, the angst of Labour Party caucus members is entirely understandable.

It's no wonder that Labour has poured such resources into the Ikaroa-Rawhiti by-election tomorrow. We saw a photo yesterday of candidate Meka Whaitiri, Mr Shearer and three other Labour MP's at Parekura Horomia's grave at the Kohimarama urupa. Given that Parliament was sitting yesterday, it seems a bit strange that more than 10% of Labour's caucus was out campaigning in a supposedly safe Labour seat whilst we are paying them to be at work. It will be interesting to see the next round of MP travel figures!

But if Labour wins tomorrow by less than 5000 votes, the finger is going to be pointed at David Shearer all over again. Parekura Horomia had a majority of over 6500 votes in 2011, and whilst much of that was a personal endorsement of the popular MP, the electorate should be a Labour shoe-in. Anything less than a large win by Ms Whaitiri will be a loss for Mr Shearer.

If a week is a long time in politics, two months must seem like a lifetime to David Shearer.