Winter test match rugby is the go for Christchurch tonight. We were close to heading down south tonight to watch the second test between New Zealand and France, but we figured that a weekend at home might be more productive after several weekends away recently.
But there's one thing for sure tonight; it's not going to be a balmy evening, and just a few minutes ago we heard that the rain has arrived in the Garden City. Whilst the good old days of the match being reduced to a slog between the respective forward packs are hopefully long gone due to superior turf management, we doubt that tonight's match will be a try-fest.
Both sides should have improved from last week in Auckland. And on a damp track, with a wet ball, that will be crucial. France dominated the breakdown last Saturday night, although their tactics in doing so were somewhat dubious. French players were allowed to go off their feet at the breakdown with some regularity, and when the ball was on the All Blacks' side, the French managed to slow it or disrupt. If tonight's referee Alain Rolland (the Irishman with the French name!) polices the breakdown better than Wayne Barnes did last week, it will be a better contest.
The All Black lineout will be better for the return from injury of Sam Whitelock, provided that he can establish a combination with Dane Coles. Whitelock will give the All Black pack some added mobility as well.
Expect Aaron Cruden to look for new ways of exploiting the French defensive line. We've heard talk of kicks going in just behind the defence, but Cruden is also skilled at attacking the line with ball in hand. Sam Cane will need to back up strongly tonight though.
It should be a great occasion in Christchurch, regardless of the conditions. AMI Stadium is small, but the crowd is very close to the action. Here's hoping that the All Blacks bring the home crowd into the action early and dent the French resolve.
Tonight is the 500th test match played by New Zealand. Their first test was played against Australia at Sydney in 1903. That Richie McCaw has played in 116 of those test matches (23.2%) is evidence of just how much rugby is played these days. The second 500 will take considerably less than 100 years!
We're picking the All Blacks to win by around 12 points and secure the Dave Gallaher Trophy tonight. We just wish that we could be there to see it in person.
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